NFL American Football

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14
Oct 11

Common Sports Betting Futures Mistakes To Avoid

Sports betting futures wagers can be an entertaining and profitable investment, but there are a number of pitfalls. These are some things to avoid:

Search for the best price: A common mistake is to assume that the price on a specific futures wager position will be the same at every sportsbook. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, you’ll often see a greater degree of difference between futures prices from book to book than any other form of bet. This is because that books aren’t as worried about what price other outfits are offering as they are about keeping their own financial position balanced.

Don’t fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you’re getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their ‘true odds’ of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are ‘under the radar’ at higher prices offer more compensation for these ‘risks’.

In more theoretical terms, the ‘true odds’ of a Duke or similar top team winning the tournament are almost always higher than the price offered. Think of it this way–say we’re betting Duke to win the national title at 2/1. This means that the Blue Devils would have to win more than 33% of the time to break even. So lets say, for the sake of argument, that we could play the tournament over 100 times. Would Duke come out on top more than 33 of these times? If not, they represent a poor value. Let’s say that they win 30 of 100 times. This means that any price under +333 or thereabouts is a poor wagering value.

Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on the favorites. Since you can make a case for quite a few teams to win the NCAA tournament at this point this particular futures market is clearly a very competitive one. In a less competitive marketplace it might be possible to “pick the winner” and have it be a good value though you will pay a price for this. Here’s a (thankfully) hypothetical example: let’s say the UFC decided to hold a one night round robin tournament with 5 competitors. Competitor #1 would be heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. The other four competitors would be professional figure skaters Elvis Stojko, Rudy Gallindo, Brian Boitano and Evgeni Plushinko. Even if he didn’t bring his “A game”, Lesnar would be essentially have a 100% certainty of beating the four untrained fighters, who also happen to be rather effeminate. If a sportsbook installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite a bet on the 63 265 pound takedown would still be theoretically a good value. It’s always difficult to risk so much to win a little, but from a strictly theoretical standpoint its a good play.

Don’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn’t make it a good value. If you’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.

On a more theoretical level, a big price alone is no way to justify a wager. The concept of value works the same at the bottom of the barrel as it does at the top: make sure the price you’re getting on an underdog accurately reflects their “true odds” of winning.

Don’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the ‘true odds’ of a Martian being named to President Obama’s cabinet wouldn’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.

Adrian Vega is a part time writer who lives in Europe, he has plenty experience writing for bodybuilding forum. He is currently writing a program on how to lose weight and help people with his nutritional knowledge.

NFL American Football — No Comments
13
Oct 11

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Pros and Cons

Among the sports betting public there’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That’s not really surprising, since there doesn’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater “lock” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.

First, let’s examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don’t count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That’s not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.

The preseason NFL betting enthusiast would suggest, however, that it is the uncertainty that characterizes these games that makes for such a strong wagering opportunity. For example, in a matchup between a championship level team and a losing team you often see strongly divergent approaches to the game. Successful teams have more to worry about in terms of player injuries, fewer areas in which they need to evaluate talent, and more continuity in the areas of coaching and team chemistry. They often view preseason games as a chore, and have little interest in their outcome as long as they keep their superstars healthy.

NFL ‘doormats’, meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They’ve often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They’ve often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they’re in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a ‘meaningless’ preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.

Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

There may be no greater determining factor of a team’s preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don’t like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants’ Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the “good” preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look.

The Internet has become a very valuable weapon in the NFL preseason handicapper’s arsenal. Simply following the local media reports of NFL teams can often produce a wealth of ‘mission critical’ betting information. The combination of anxious beat writers, little in the way of ‘real’ news, and a less guarded approach by coaches to games that ‘don’t count’ can often reveal game strategies, playing time for key personnel, or even a team’s specific agenda for a particular game. Sometime coaches will come right out and say that evaluating a certain position, or working on a specific offensive scheme is their top priority for a game. It’s a great way to find not only good teams to bet on, but strong situations to go against teams that are focused on something other than outscoring their opponent.

In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.

Adrian Vega is a part time writer who lives in Europe, he has plenty experience writing for bodybuilding forum. He is currently writing a program on how to lose weight and help people with his nutritional knowledge.

NFL American Football — No Comments
15
Dec 09

49ers VS Cardinals – Niners Beat Cardinals 24-9

The 49ers managed to keep their National Football League playoff hopes alive last night, by beating the Cardinals 24-9.

Frank Gore ran for 167 yards and another score and the San Francisco 49ers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a dominant victory.

The Cardinals had their second game with six or more turnovers of the season, much to the delight of the sellout crowd at Candlestick Park. The 49ers had a franchise-record five forced fumbles, two by safety Dashon Goldson.

Arizona’s loss to the 49ers, has now denied them the chance to clinch the NFC West title.

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11
Dec 09

The AFL Frowns Upon Your World Cup Shenanigans

FOOTY! WHAT!?God, I love Australia. Nowhere else in the world will you find so many football codes constantly warring with each other for the hearts and minds of the people. How many epic pub brawls have started over rugby league fans calling Aussie rules a girl’s game, or vice versa? The world may never know, and more’s the pity.

The latest battle in the Aussie Football Wars, however, won’t be fought over beers. Lost amidst the massive English and American bids for the 2018 World Cup is the fact that Australia would like to host FIFA’s big show, too, because soccer is growing down under, too.

And guess what? The AFL and NRL aren’t giving up their stadiums for your girl’s game. Oh, no.

See, unlike England and America, Australia has not one, but two major pro football leagues in season in June and July, and those leagues aren’t too keen on giving up some of their stadiums in the middle of the season. Sure, the World Cup might be the biggest sporting event on the planet and might bring unprecedented tourism dollars to Australia. That won’t stop the AFL and NRL from looking at it as a not only a huge shot in the arm to the competition, but a massive pain in the ass.

Perhaps if Football Federation Australia really wants to follow through on its darkhorse bid, it should start considering some new construction. Melbourne Cricket Ground can fit 100,000 people, but for a soccer game, they’ll all be about half a mile away from the action. Imagine paying the GDP of Slovenia for front row seats to the World Cup Final, only to find your view is partially obstructed by that bench 20 yards in front of you.

As much as I’d love to see the World Cup return to the States, I’m now hoping Australia does get it soon, if only to see just how ugly and bitter the Aussie Football Wars can get. I can’t wait to see the AFL devise ways to lure packs of Brazilians and Ivorians down to Docklands. “We’ll show ya some real footy, mates!” The resulting confusion alone might make for great television.

(Spotted on Pitch Invasion.)

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8
Dec 09

USL Declares These Bitches Better Have Its Money

The news last week that the Rochester Rhinos had decided to join the breakaway North American Soccer League had most of us believing that this new league might stand a decent chance of happening. A USL stalwart like Rochester wouldn’t leave unless it felt league certification from the US Soccer Federation was in the bag, right?

Not if those bitter old bastards at NuRock have anything to say about it, apparently.

According to Canadian soccer blog The 24th Minute, the USSF held meetings with representatives from the USL and NASL, and the USL continued to insist that several NASL clubs were contractually obligated to play in the USL in 2010. One source claimed that the USL was “threatening to sue everyone at the table” if the NASL was certified.

In essence, a USL representative walked into the room and shouted, “BITCH BETTA HAVE MY MONEY!”

This should give you some idea of how much USL actually cares about soccer in America. It doesn’t. The people in charge of this show only want to get paid, and anyone who has any funny ideas of creating a league where club owners have some say in how the league works should be forced out of business for insubordination. These people would rather destroy second-division soccer in America than let any of these clubs be free to decide how they want their league to operate. That might give you some idea of how much money the USL was raking in from this “business model” of theirs.

This is bad news for several of the NASL’s breakaway clubs — especially Carolina, Miami and Minnesota, who led this charge in the first place. If the USSF decides not to certify the NASL, that would force several clubs reportedly under contract to play the 2010 USL-1 season. Several more would end up sitting out 2010 all together, either by choice or by USL lockout. That would undo all the good work the Carolina Railhawks did in putting a good team together last season, and it might force the Minnesota Thunder to shut its doors for good.

On the other hand, all this might do is delay the inevitable. Any clubs forced back into USL for 2010 would be certain to avoid any contractual obligations to USL in 2011. That might give the NASL the time it needs to ramp up properly and build a worthwhile league.

But would that be too late? This is a World Cup year, after all, which means more attention on soccer in America. What happens when potential fans look at what’s going on below MLS and find out just how much of a joke it really is?

USL isn’t thinking about what’s good for the game. It’s thinking about what’s good for its bank account, and we’re all starting to realize it always has. Enjoy that CREAM, fellas, and thanks for nothing.

UDPATE (12/09): USL has filed its first lawsuit, claiming the Rhinos, Rowdies and Crystal Palace Baltimore are in breach of contract. Clearly, they don’t care what anybody thinks of them anymore.

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