Among the sports betting public there’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That’s not really surprising, since there doesn’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater “lock” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.

First, let’s examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don’t count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That’s not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.

The preseason NFL betting enthusiast would suggest, however, that it is the uncertainty that characterizes these games that makes for such a strong wagering opportunity. For example, in a matchup between a championship level team and a losing team you often see strongly divergent approaches to the game. Successful teams have more to worry about in terms of player injuries, fewer areas in which they need to evaluate talent, and more continuity in the areas of coaching and team chemistry. They often view preseason games as a chore, and have little interest in their outcome as long as they keep their superstars healthy.

NFL ‘doormats’, meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They’ve often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They’ve often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they’re in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a ‘meaningless’ preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.

Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

There may be no greater determining factor of a team’s preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don’t like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants’ Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the “good” preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look.

The Internet has become a very valuable weapon in the NFL preseason handicapper’s arsenal. Simply following the local media reports of NFL teams can often produce a wealth of ‘mission critical’ betting information. The combination of anxious beat writers, little in the way of ‘real’ news, and a less guarded approach by coaches to games that ‘don’t count’ can often reveal game strategies, playing time for key personnel, or even a team’s specific agenda for a particular game. Sometime coaches will come right out and say that evaluating a certain position, or working on a specific offensive scheme is their top priority for a game. It’s a great way to find not only good teams to bet on, but strong situations to go against teams that are focused on something other than outscoring their opponent.

In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.

Adrian Vega is a part time writer who lives in Europe, he has plenty experience writing for bodybuilding forum. He is currently writing a program on how to lose weight and help people with his nutritional knowledge.

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Meet Nyrel Sevilla. He’s six years old, and he’s here to knock your sorry ass into next week, bitch. And unlike Ben Roethlisberger, he’ll never have any trouble playing with a concussion.

Here’s a quick glance at some other stories worth reading:

• The Saskatchewan Roughriders lost the Grey Cup when Montreal’s missed field goal was negated by Calgary having too many men on the field. Montreal made their second field goal attempt, and the quest is on to scapegoat the 13th man. [Canada.com]
• Hines Ward’s comments on concussions makes the Steelers look far worse than they’ve looked on the field lately. [The Sporting Blog]
• Merrill Hoge has a slightly different take on concussions. [NFL FanHouse]
• Premier League CEO Richard Scudamore wants to kick your filthy pirate ass off the Internet for using Justin.TV to watch Stoke v. Burnley. Don’t expect him to offer a legal alternative anytime soon. [Techdirt]
• Can legal gambling and football co-exist in the wake of match-fixing scandals? [Pitch Invasion]
• Grahame Jones lays into the FIFA executive committee, calls them “rogues and villains,” tells us nothing we didn’t already know and can’t really change. [L.A. Times]
• Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d’Or. Predicting the sunrise was tougher than predicting that. [The Offside]
• MLS will give commissioner Don Garber a sweet contract extension on one condition: he gets the new collective bargaining agreement done during the offseason. Any more grenades y’all wanna toss on that powderkeg, MLS owners? [WVHooligan]
• The Rochester Rhinos have bolted USL for the new NASL. This is rather big, and I will write more about it very soon. [Triangle Offense]

And since this site still has extensive links that cover football’s origins and evolution, here are a couple of interesting pieces about that.

• Aston Villa pays tribute to William McGregor, the Scotsman who came up with the idea of a “football league” back in 1886. I’d say that idea was a success. [BBC]
• Here’s another look back at the gridiron game a century ago, when nobody wore any padding and players were killed regularly. Hines Ward would have loved it. [Every Day Should Be Saturday]

I would love to find out just how many regular House viewers heard this joke and asked, “Who?” I mean, sure, we all knew, but what about all those muggles who don’t watch football? Were there a few more Google searches for Mike Tomlin this week? I wonder…

(Gracias, MJD.)

In the case of American football, I would propose a slightly different theory. It’s not the disappointment or the hope that kills you. It’s the stupidity.

Take, for example, these very elementary numbers, provided by our pal Darin Gantt. When Jake Delhomme is their starting quarterback, the Carolina Panthers are 46-8 when he throws less than 30 times in a game. They’re 13-32 when he throws 30 or more times in a game.

So on a Thursday night against Miami, when Panthers running backs are averaging 4.8 yards per carry — and that’s not including DeAngelo Williams’ 50-yard scamper — what do the Panthers do? They call 42 pass plays and 27 running plays. Oh, by the way, Delhomme was sacked four times on 3rd-down pass plays in that game.

You would think that in this economy, John Fox would want to keep his job. I guess he’s got a lot more cash saved up than I do.

Then there’s the Steelers’ special teams. Oh, the Steelers special teams…

As my buddy JJ Cooper points out, three of Pittsburgh’s four losses this season have featured major miscues on special teams. They allowed kick returns for touchdowns against Cincinnati and Kansas City, and Jeff Reed missed two field goals against Chicago. Reed also has developed a knack for being utterly useless on kick returns, which might be a small part of the reason the Steelers have given up four, count ‘em, four kick return TDs this season.

Amazingly, the Steelers shit-the-bed performance against the Chiefs — the Chiefs! — on Sunday didn’t cause them to loose any ground in the AFC North, because the Bengals gave up the ball twice in the 4th quarter and allowed the Raiders — the Raiders! — to score 10 points in the last minute of regulation.

And let’s not even talk about the Browns, who keep finding new ways to lose.

That’s what really kills you as a fan — watching your team do something stupid, and knowing in your gut that it didn’t have to be like that. Then again, we still hope that they’ll figure it out and get it right next week, don’t we?

After watching Jake Delhomme shit the bed against the Eagles in Week 1 this year, I fully expected the Carolina Panthers to have a very long and very ugly season. So I tuned out and focused on my Steelers, who then proceeded to shit the bed twice against the Bengals — which was no fun to watch, but didn’t make me think Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes were anywhere close to being dashed like the Panthers’ playoff dreams. Hey, the Steelers won a Super Bowl as a six-seed. Just get ‘em in the door, right?

Regarding the Panthers, however, there was one thing that I didn’t count on — the NFC’s extraordinary ability to suck.

Yes, even at 4-5, the Carolina Panthers are only one game behind all the Wild Card contenders in the NFC, and they fought their way into that position by running the ball, playing good defense, and generally ignoring Steve Smith’s incessant bitching that he’s not getting the ball enough.

What, exactly, does Smith expect? When your biggest liability is your overpaid quarterback and your top two running backs are gaining 4.98 yards a carry, you run the damn ball. Is Smith volunteering to line up in the backfield? The man has proven incapable of enjoying success when his numbers are down — although really, that just makes him a typical wide receiver, doesn’t it?

Either way, the Panthers have inexplicably found their way into the playoff race, and they can pull one step closer to being a contender — at least, as much as any mediocre team can be a contender in a conference that the Saints and Vikings are utterly dominating — with a win tonight over the Miami Dolphins. (8:00 PM, NFL Network) I’m not sure even the most ardent Panthers fans could have predicted that this scenario, especially with Thomas Davis and Jordan Gross out of the lineup with major injuries.

Meanwhile, the great irony of this game is that Dan Henning, who was fired by the Panthers for being the most boring play caller ever, is now being hailed as a creative genius for building the Wildcat formation in Miami. Where was that creativity when you were in Charlotte, Dan? Oh, right, you didn’t have Ronnie Brown… wait, you won’t have Ronnie Brown tonight, either. I guess you’ll have to put something together with Ricky Williams and Pat White. How many fascinating and innovative ways can run the ball off-tackle tonight, Dan? Show us that sparkling offensive creativity now, Dan.

Of course, all this mockery of Dan Henning — which, to be honest, is fun — becomes worthless if Jake starts tossing pick sixes again like they’re going out of style. Let’s just hope this Panthers team builds off that win against Atlanta last Sunday and does all the right things tonight. I suspect the NFL Network is thinking the same thing. The last thing they want to be known for is showing spectacular quarterback implosions every week.

I suggested that DeShaun Foster was better off taking a knee after getting that first down, rather that running into the end zone, because then the Saints never would have gotten the ball, and the Panthers could have run out the clock with a 4-point lead. As you might expect, the FanHouse commenters thought mockery was the proper response to that idea, in part because the Panthers still won the game.

Three years later, Maurice Jones-Drew takes a knee at the 1-yard line for the Jacksonville Jaguars, setting up a game winning 21-yard field goal and preventing the New York Jets from getting the ball back. It was a riskier move, because the Jags were trailing by a point with 1:48 left, but Jones-Drew seems to be attracting universal praise for making a smart strategic play.

The point here is that you don’t give your opponent the opportunity to score if you don’t have to. This is why Bill Belichick really went for it on 4th down on his own 28-yard line against the Colts. Converting meant Peyton Manning would not get the ball, and the Pats could run out the clock. Punting meant Manning was all but guaranteed to get the ball and engineer a game-winning drive. Plus, Belichick put his faith in his best player — Tom Brady — to get the job done.

We shouldn’t criticize Belichick for choosing to go for it. We should, however, get on his case about the play he chose to call. Honestly, the coaches couldn’t have picked something better than that?

Here are some other interesting football stories you might have missed:

• UNC serves up its most fortunate illegal forward pass since 1895. [WRAL FANKind]
• Dan Marino inadvertently shares his true feelings about the Wildcat formation. [Awful Announcing]
• Chicago Bears fans are sore losers, even when they win. [FanHouse]
• Allen Iverson as a Philadelphia… Eagle? Right. [The Sporting Blog]
• Japan calls on South Africa to ban the vuvuzela. Yeah, good luck with that, fellas. [The Guardian]
• Katy Perry launches new line of West Ham United lingerie. Now we know what Michelle Obama is getting for Christmas. [The Guardian]
• Belated congratulations to the Raleigh Venom, champions of Division II USA Women’s Rugby. [WRAL FANKind]

What better way to start the week than with an old guy flippin’ the bird?

Yes, Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams was clearly enjoying his team’s win over Buffalo yesterday, so much so that he proudly stood up, pointed at the Bills, and gave them the finger — two fingers, from the looks of it. Oh, and he did that in a luxury box with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell looking on.

I suspect Bud’s fine won’t be quite as big as Chad Ochocinco’s fine for that one-dollar bribery stunt. I also suspect Bud will gladly pay up. After all, what’s the point of having money if you can’t have a little fun spending it?

UPDATE (6:00 PM): Wow, I was way off on the size of the fine. Ol’ Bud was fined $250,000 by the NFL today.

(Spotted on Shutdown Corner.)

First off, designer Ken Carbone spent Fast Company’s time telling people that NFL helmets offended his sensibilities as a designer. So he decided to make new ones — a concept that has “Oh, hell…” written all over it. First, he made a new helmet for the Washington Redskins:

For the Washington Redskins I tried a design direction that might be considered more politically correct in most circles by removing the Native American portrait, emphasizing the feather motif from the headdress and using it more dynamically on the helmet.

Except, of course, that the end result looks less like an Native American feather headdress and more like your typical Halloween peacock outfit.

Hey, there’s an idea. Let’s just stop calling them the Redskins all together and make them the Washington Fightin’ Peacocks. Then all the cheerleaders can dress just like that, but in maroon and gold. (We should have Vinny Cerrato go recommend this to Daniel Snyder immediately, just to prove how bulletproof Vinny’s job seems to be.)

Then there’s Carbone’s design for the New England Patriots

America! Fuck yeah!

While Carbone derides helmets for being ugly, though, some researchers have decided that helmets are actually hurting players more than helping them. Their ingenious solution? Take the helmets off. And who’s suggesting this? Australians. Of course!

One of the strongest arguments for banning helmets comes from the Australian Football League. While it’s a similarly rough game, the AFL never added any of the body armor Americans wear. When comparing AFL research studies and official NFL injury reports, AFL players appear to get hurt more often on the whole with things like shoulder injuries and tweaked knees. But when it comes to head injuries, the helmeted NFL players are about 25% more likely to sustain one.

Unless Barry Hall is playing, of course.

Andrew McIntosh, a researcher at Australia’s University of New South Wales who analyzed videotape, says there may be a greater prevalence of head injuries in the American game because the players hit each other with forces up to 100% greater. “If they didn’t have helmets on, they wouldn’t do that,” he says. “They know they’d injure themselves.”

What would be the end result of American football without helmets? Do I need to bring up 1908 again? Most NFL players aren’t going to suddenly stop leading with their heads right away — not until a few people die from on-field cranial fractures. When that happens, nobody will give the game time to slow down and look more like old-fashioned rugby. No. They’ll go right back to wearing helmets, and they’ll do so because the risk of slow, long-term brain damage seems better than the risk of instantly having their gray matter see the light of day.

More importantly, though, removing the helmet from American football takes away from what the game really is — modern gladiatorial combat without the swords. It’s a violent game for violent tastes, and it’s what the American people have chosen for the last century or so. They’re not going to quit just because a few jocks get their brains scrambled over time.

Maybe football helmets are ugly, then, for more than just design reasons, but it’ll be a long, long time before anyone decides to get rid of them. In the meantime… hey, Steelers v. Bengals. WHO YA GOT!?

As I sat here getting ready to watch my Pittsburgh Steelers in another big Monday Night Football game, I watched Ron Jaworski give a bit of his usual solid game analysis. As you can see from this video, David Anderson of the Houston Texans has seen some of Jaws’ analysis as well — quite a bit of it, from the sound of things.

I didn’t so much laugh as say, “Damn, that’s pretty good.” Your mileage may vary.

(Spotted on Awful Announcing.)

Even if you do dismiss the idea, though, you cannot dismiss that quite a few of these Tuskers will get NFL jobs come December. And at the top of that list? Tuskers quarterback Brooks Bollinger.

Yes, Jets fans, that Brooks Bollinger. He of the mediocre passer rating (74.6) and completion percentage (58.6%) in six sideline-heavy NFL seasons, who made many of you pray for the quick and complete recovery of Chad Pennington’s shoulder. In case you hadn’t noticed, the UFL is making Brooks Bollinger look like Brooks Manning. In three games, Bollinger has completed 62 of 88 passes for 767 yards, 9 TDs and 1 INT. That’s good for a passer rating of… wait for it… 126.4.

Remind you of anyone?

Remember when ol’ Tommy Maddox ran roughshod over the fly-by-night XFL and walked away with a big fat MVP trophy — this after four years of unfulfilled promise (and a 67.8 passer rating) in the big show? Remember when Steelers fans were practically overjoyed to see Maddox replace Kordell Stewart and, for about half a season, actually look good doing it?

My friends, this tale is about to be re-told. If the Tuskers go undefeated and Bollinger walks away with an MVP trophy, someone will offer him a NFL job. There are certainly enough NFL teams in desperate need of competent quarterbacks. The Raiders could use one. So could the Titans, Browns, Bucs and… oh, yeah, the Panthers.

Seriously, Matt Moore better hope this UFL lasts more than one season, because that’s the only way he’s ever going to prove he can be a starting quarterback. If he can’t win a start over Jake Delhomme and his 0.3 touchdown-to-interception ratio — zero point three, people — then he needs to get the hell out of Charlotte. You can’t tell me Matt Moore, who went 2-1 as an NFL starter when John Fox finally gave him the ball two years ago, wouldn’t be thrilled to swap places with Brooks Bollinger at some point in the next 12 months — or the next 12 days, for that matter.

Bollinger won’t be the only UFL player who comes out of this with an NFL job, but he’ll definitely be the most visible, and if this stint gives him the confidence to do the job at the NFL level, that will be a nice boost for this startup league. He should enjoy it while it lasts, though, because this will likely be the last time his passer rating hits triple-digits.